Dr. Muhammad Shahid
| Pakistan’s social protection system is at a critical juncture. While programmes such as the Benazir Income Support Programme has made important strides in providing cash transfers to vulnerable populations, the country faces mounting poverty, inequality, and vulnerability that current structures are increasingly ill-equipped to address. Recent poverty trends illustrate this challenge starkly: national poverty has risen from 21.9 percent in 2018–19 to 28.9 percent in 2024–25, with rural poverty climbing from 28.2 to 36.2 percent and urban poverty from 11 to 17.4 percent. These shifts underscore the need to move beyond static, cash-transfer-centric approaches toward a hybrid, dynamic, and multidimensional social protection architecture that addresses both chronic and transitory vulnerability. 1. Challenges in the Current Social Protection System Several structural challenges limit the effectiveness of Pakistan’s social protection framework. First, targeting mechanisms such as the Proxy Means Test (PMT), while useful, rely heavily on static asset-based indicators, which inadequately capture dynamic vulnerability, particularly in the face of inflation, climate shocks, labor market precarity, and urban cost pressures. Second, programmes are largely fragmented and sectorally siloed, with limited coordination across federal and provincial agencies, resulting in overlaps, gaps, and inefficiencies. Third, coverage remains uneven, particularly among marginalized groups such as women-headed households, informal workers, the disabled, and climate-affected populations, while programme benefits are often insufficient to mitigate multidimensional deprivation. Finally, the social protection system is primarily reactive, lacking the flexibility and scalability to respond rapidly to economic shocks, natural disasters, or pandemic-induced crises. 2. Opportunities for a Hybrid Social Protection Architecture A hybrid social protection model offers a promising path forward by combining universal, targeted, and shock-responsive elements. Such an approach integrates cash transfers, in-kind support, social insurance, skills development, and livelihood programs, creating a system capable of both poverty alleviation and resilience building. Key opportunities include: Dynamic Targeting: Leveraging the National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) for real-time updates, geospatial vulnerability mapping, and differentiated eligibility, allowing rapid inclusion of households affected by shocks. Shock-Responsive Mechanisms: Building capacity to scale assistance during climate events, economic crises, or health emergencies, ensuring that temporary shocks do not push households into chronic poverty. Integrated Human Development: Linking cash transfers with nutrition, education retention, healthcare access, and skills training, promoting upward mobility and breaking intergenerational cycles of poverty. Decentralized Coordination: Strengthening provincial and district-level administration for better delivery, accountability, and contextual adaptation of social protection programmes. By blending these components, Pakistan can shift from a fragmented relief system to a comprehensive, adaptive, and inclusive social protection ecosystem. 3. Policy Imperatives for Reform To operationalize a hybrid model, Pakistan must pursue several policy priorities: Expand Coverage and Inclusivity: Ensure that social protection reaches the most vulnerable, including informal sector workers, climate-affected households, persons with disabilities, and women-headed households. Institutional Strengthening: Improve coordination between federal and provincial bodies, enhance data infrastructure, and institutionalize monitoring, evaluation, and feedback mechanisms. Link Social Protection with Livelihoods: Combine safety nets with employment programs, skill development, and microfinance, promoting both immediate support and long-term resilience. Shock-Responsive Financing: Establish contingency funds and pre-agreed protocols to scale benefits rapidly during economic, health, or climate shocks. Evidence-Based Decision Making: Use data analytics, geospatial mapping, and multidimensional poverty indices to continuously refine targeting, programme design, and resource allocation. 4. Conclusion Rethinking Pakistan’s social protection architecture is no longer optional but it is an urgent developmental necessity. The rise in national poverty, widening rural-urban disparities, and increasing vulnerability to shocks demand a paradigm shift from static, relief-oriented programmes to a hybrid, dynamic, and multidimensional system. By integrating universal, targeted, and shock-responsive mechanisms with livelihood and human development interventions, Pakistan can protect households from immediate deprivation, enhance resilience, and promote inclusive growth. A reimagined social protection system will not only mitigate poverty but also strengthen the social contract, institutional capacity, and long-term development trajectory of the country. This is the time to act. We need a more adaptive, integrated, and forward-looking social protection ecosystem which is critical in ensuring that Pakistan’s most vulnerable populations are not left behind. |
