Dr. Muhammad Shahid & Rehan Khalid
| It was once hailed as Pakistan’s greatest demographic dividend , the youth bulge, a surging tide of energy, ambition, and raw potential. But today, the numbers tell a different story. The crest of this bulge has peaked, and the country is dangerously close to watching its most valuable resource slip through its fingers. According to the World Development Indicators (WDI), Pakistan’s youth, those aged 15 to 24, made up 19.2 percent of the population in 1980. By 2010, that share had climbed to 20.9 percent. Today, in 2023, it stands at 20 percent and, for the first time in decades, the tide is receding. The 2023 Population Census confirms the trend. Youth, who were 19.1 percent of the population in 2017, have declined to 18.5 percent. This is demographic history in the making. The youth bulge has officially plateaued. The Calm Before the Storm On the surface, this decline might sound like a blessing. A lower share of youth could mean better absorption into higher education or the job market, provided the economy and institutions can keep pace. Yet Pakistan’s reality tells another story. Between 2017 and 2023, GDP growth averaged a paltry 2.6 percent. Compare this with a population growth rate of 2.5 percent, and it becomes clear, that is, the economy has been crawling while the workforce keeps swelling. The result? A generation stranded. The census estimates that in 2023, 44.7 million young people were in Pakistan. Of these, 21.3 million formed part of the labor force. Astonishingly, 6.2 million of them were unemployed, translating to a youth unemployment rate of nearly 29 percent. Add to this the millions neither in school nor at work, and the picture turns grim which implies that 15.6 million idle youth, that is roughly 35 percent of the total youth population. The “Idle Youth” Time Bomb Idle youth are not just an economic statistic. They are a ticking socio-political time bomb. According to ILO estimates, 34 percent of Pakistan’s youth were idle in 2024 which means about 15.1 million souls caught in limbo. The problem has grown worse over time. In 2015, there were 12.4 million idle youth. That’s an annual growth of 2.2 percent in a group that should be shrinking. Even more alarming: the number of idle male youth is growing at a staggering 8.3 percent per year. We know that idle youth are vulnerable to crime, to extremism, to drugs, to disillusionment. They represent a pool of restless energy with nowhere to channel it. As one development expert puts it: “Idle youth are like tinder in a dry forest ,all it takes is one spark. |
Provincial Percentage of Idle Youth
| Province | Percentage of Idle Youth |
| Punjab | 33 |
| Sindh | 38 |
| Balochistan | 41 |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 43 |
| A Regional Outlier The problem is not just domestic but it’s regional. WDI data shows Pakistan has the highest share of idle youth in South Asia. Sri Lanka stands at 18 percent, India at 24 percent, and Bangladesh at 30 percent. Pakistan’s 34 percent puts it at the very top in the region. The story gets even worse when we break it down provincially. Idle youth make up 41 percent of Baluchistan’s young population and 43 percent in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa where these regions already plagued with instability and limited opportunities. The Gender Divide The gender breakdown is a sobering reminder of Pakistan’s deep-rooted inequalities. Of the idle youth, 75 percent are female. This isn’t because women lack ambition or ability but it reflects systemic barriers to female labour force participation. Social norms, limited mobility, and inadequate job opportunities lock millions of young women out of the economy. In essence, Pakistan is wasting half its demographic dividend before it even gets a chance to cash it in. Education: The Missing Link Why are so many youth idle? The trail leads back to education. Pakistan spends a meagre 1.5 percent of GDP on education, down from 1.9 percent a decade ago. Compare that with 4.2 percent in India, 2.6 percent in Sri Lanka, and 1.8 percent in Bangladesh. Within Pakistan, only 29 percent of the already-thin education budget goes to higher education. With only 14 million youth enrolled in education, Pakistan’s higher education institutions simply cannot keep up with the demand. Too many young people leave school without skills. Too many universities lack capacity. Too many graduates find their degrees irrelevant in a stagnant job market. The Road Ahead: From Bulge to Dividend The numbers don’t lie. Pakistan’s demographic window is closing fast. To turn the youth bulge from a liability into an asset, bold policy choices are needed. Experts argue that GDP growth must rebound to at least 4.5 to 5 percent, especially in labor-intensive sectors like agriculture, small-scale manufacturing, construction, and services. At the same time, education must become a national priority. Redirecting funds toward universities and technical training is no longer optional but it’s existential. Social protection programs like BISP should expand their scope to include youth-targeted scholarships, vocational training, and microfinance schemes. Financial institutions need to step up with special credit lines for young entrepreneurs, especially in rural and underdeveloped areas. Migration: A Symptom of Failure One of the most telling consequences of youth underutilization is the scramble to migrate. From the Gulf to Europe, Pakistan’s youth are desperate to leave. Yet global doors are closing, and the frustrated energy of millions risks turning inward. If left unaddressed, Pakistan faces a future where its biggest asset becomes its biggest liability. Conclusion: The Defining Challenge Pakistan’s youth bulge was supposed to be the engine of its future. Instead, it risks becoming a brake on progress. The statistics are stark, but they are also a call to action. With 44.7 million young citizens, Pakistan still has the raw material for transformation. What it needs now is vision and the political will to invest in its youth. |
